Growth continues in the real sector confidence index

In the real sector confidence index data for December announced by the Central Bank, it is seen that the effects of the increase continue compared to the previous month. While RSGI increased by 2.9 points in December to 106.8; seasonally adjusted RSGI rose by 3 points to 110.4.

During this period, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate was 75.6% with a 0.2 point decrease; seasonally adjusted CUR was at the level of 75.4%.

When the diffusion indexes of the survey questions that make up the index are analyzed, the export order quantity in the next three months, fixed capital investment expenditure, production volume in the next three months, current finished product stock, current total order amount and the evaluations regarding the general course affect the index upwards; The total order quantity in the last three months and the total employment evaluations in the next three months affected the index towards a decline. Despite the tightening of financial conditions and the limitation of demand, and the increasing Covid cases, the growth effects in the manufacturing industry are also felt in the 4Q20 period. However, it is still possible that the restriction measures will have a slowing effect on the overall economic activity. Prospects are supported by vaccination. In this context, orders, investments and expectations for production are improving in the manufacturing industry. However, expectations for an increase in employment have worsened due to the uncertainties created by the Covid epidemic. The continuation of the increase in inflation, on the other hand, has an upward effect on the expectations of firms regarding the price of products sold and indicates that the inflationary price effects in the sector will continue.

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