Trump impeachment process and possible 2024 candidacy

It looks like a new impeachment process will begin for Trump after political violence, such as the Congressional occupation, which has not been experienced in American history. Democrats have serious attempts on this issue for Trump, days before the end of his term of office after his "unsuccessful impeachment" attempt at the end of 2019. In the previous impeachment attempt, the Democratic-majority House of Representatives dismissed Trump; The Republican-majority Senate freed Trump from his conviction. The vote of 2/3 of the Senate is required for the President to be impeached. Even if Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives, it does not seem possible to reach the required number of votes in the Senate, where half of the Republicans constitute.

Considering that Trump will hand over the task to Biden on January 20; The importance of this impeachment investigation is not to shorten Trump's term by a few days, but rather to pave the way for a possible 2024 nomination. The Republicans already have enough power in Congress to slow down the process sufficiently so that no decision is likely to be taken before January 20. The candidate status in the 2024 elections, which Trump said he was considering entering before, may vary depending on the progress of the impeachment investigation. If a vote of impeachment is held in Congress before January 20, Trump will be the first president to be impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time in US history. However, as we said, even if this happens, a 2/3 majority will have to be caught in the Senate to convict and remove Trump from the presidency. With this Congressional arithmetic, it seems difficult, even if there are some Republican Senators against Trump. Therefore, the conclusion of the investigation will probably not reach January 20, and Trump seems to hand over on the normal date.

As for a conviction that will result after 20 January; US law allows this. However, this has not been applied to any US president so far. In recent US history, there are examples such as Nixon (he resigned before the impeachment process began) and Clinton (who won the Senate vote) where the impeachment process took place while in office, but there is no "impeached" after leaving office. Therefore, we do not have a precedent for the situation. However, if there is no "impeachment" until January 20, Democrats are likely to follow this path, because the issue is to prevent Trump from being a candidate in 2024 rather than shortening his term by a few days.

If Trump is nominated in 2024, he will be chasing the presidency for the "second term without back to back". Grover Cleveland (1885–1889 and 1893–1897), the 22nd and 24th President, is the onyl one who could do this in US history. Herbet Hoover also served as President between 1929 and 1933, defeated by the FDR in the 1932 elections; He then tried his luck again in 1936 and 1940, but failed to become a candidate for the Republican party. After Trump's recent loss of popularity in the public eye, he does not seem possible to be re-elected president. But; a Gallup poll conducted in December shows that Trump has an 87% approval rating among Republicans, albeit not very popular with the country as a whole. Another December poll conducted by Quinnipiac University revealed that 77% of Republicans believed the lie that Trump lost to Biden due to election fraud. Trump repeated his election fraud rhetoric, even as his supporters wreaked havoc on Congress.

It is said that Biden will also become a "transition" president due to his old age, possibly Kamala Harris will be preparing for the next two terms. If Biden does not enter 2024, he will be the first US president to not run for the second time after Johnson (who took office after the assassination of JFK, was elected President in 1964, was not a candidate in 1968 after facing defeat in the primary elections). Before that, Rutherford Hayes was not a candidate for his second term in 1880.

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